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Our pioneering work with prediction markets has been covered by:

Competitive Forecasting

This tool is optimized for collective forecasting of continuous variables (e.g, sales, price, delivery date), even under several conditional scenarios.

We developped this tool specifically for use within corporate environments where time is money and participants are few or just unfamiliar with financial trading.

Using a friendly slider control, participants are asked to make high/low forecasts for the target variable. The scoring rule incentivizes participants to make their forecasts early, to update them often, and to narrow the spread between their high and low estimates as much as they dare.

Scoring Rule:  

Individual Forecasts
Collective Forecast

Advantages
  • Very intuitive - no learning curve;
     
  • Rich data gathering, capturing the full diversity of opinions, and allowing opportunities to analyze various biases among different groups of participants;
     
  • Charts display the distribution of individual forecasts, the mean forecast and its standard deviation throughout the forecasting period;
     
  • Easy set up of conditional forecasting scenarios, e.g., forecasting sales if we built the red widget or if we built the blue widget.