Prediction Market Solutions by NewsFutures

Trading Uncertainty For Collective Wisdom

Our pioneering work with prediction markets has been covered by:

Scientific Advisory Board

The science of prediction markets is still evolving, as is the debate about their relevance to public and corporate life. As we continue to develop and implement real-world prediction markets, we are grateful for the advice and inspiration provided by the members of our Scientific Advisory Board.

	Robin Hanson Professor of Economics, George Mason University, USA http://hanson.gmu.edu/home.html
Professor Hanson is the inventor of prediction markets (he called them "idea futures"). His core research interest is in understanding what goes wrong when people debate important questions in science and policy, preventing them from making the best possible estimates, and what can be done to fix these problems. He studies the rationality of disagreement in general, and general institutions for improving debate, especially prediction markets. Robin's thought leadership has been acknowledged by mentions in more than one hundred press/media articles. He was the first to publish proposals to widely apply speculative markets to better aggregate information for science and policy (e.g., Could Gambling Save Science?). In 1989 he created the first internal corporate prediction market at Xanadu. In 1994 his design and inspiration led to one of the first web markets (now called Foresight Exchange) for which he received the Prix Ars Electronica Golden Nica. His 1999 IEEE Intelligent Systems paper entitled Decision Markets is the call to action that directly led to the creation of NewsFutures. More recently, Robin has been a principal architect of the innovative and controversial DARPA-sponsored Policy Analysis Market.

	Justin Wolfers Assistant Professor of Business and Public Policy, Wharton, University of Pennsylvania, USA http://bpp.wharton.upenn.edu/jwolfers/index.shtml
Professor Wolfers brings deep mathematical skills to bear on issues of business and public policy. He has published research and popular writings in labor economics, macroeconomics, social policy, behavioral finance and political economy. Besides his faculty position at Wharton, he is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a Research Affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research, a Visiting Scholar at the San Francisco Federal Reserve, and a Research Fellow at the Institute for the Study of Labor in Bonn, Germany. In 2002, he was awarded the Milken Institute prize for distinguished economic research. Justin has coauthored several of the most quoted and rigorous research articles on the accuracy of prediction markets and their potential relevance to the public debate. In particular, a 2004 article with Eric Zitzewitz (Stanford) was widely covered by the media (e.g., The Economist). His collaboration with NewsFutures has produced a landmark article comparing the accuracy of real-money and play-money markets (Does Money Matter?).